Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Election materials in Burma
The country's junta is holding a phased vote over the coming weeks.

The nation is holding an election in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unable to participate because of an continuing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it seized power in a coup, which ignited widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.

Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the election under a new law which imposes severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after criticising a film promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, pointing out that armed rebel groups have made warnings urging people to boycott the polls.

The army has been fighting on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It lost control of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while the rest are in exile.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has urged negotiations to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".

Tina Bryant
Tina Bryant

A seasoned business strategist with over 15 years of experience in corporate development and digital transformation.

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