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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It often acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.

But this year's field is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and recent underperformers ascending together. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a normal season!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

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