Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
